How Can Tajikistan Protect Itself from External Threats?
Author: Talib Aliyev, analyst, especially for “Sangar”
Multi-vector foreign policy is the foundation of any country's stability in the world. The greatest minds came to this conclusion centuries ago. Strategic thinking is highly relevant for Tajikistan. The republic has a unique geopolitical position. In addition to its neighbors in Central Asia, Tajikistan borders China — the emerging giant of the global economy — and the Wakhan Corridor even serves as a gateway to South Asia.
Tajikistan also participates in developing joint initiatives in the fields of economy, ecology, and security, strengthening cooperation with CIS countries. Dushanbe also supports integration initiatives, including the EAEU and the “Belt and Road” project. All of this allows the country to maintain a more independent foreign policy while preserving control over its statehood, economy, culture, and army.
Foreign policy is a very delicate game, and Tajikistan has managed to navigate it successfully. Strategic processes in Central Asia are complex. External factors make this game increasingly tricky. Serious risks arise from this. All strategists understand when a partner is seeking mutual economic gain, but recognizing attempts to influence people’s minds for personal gain is far more difficult.
In Eurasia, for example, the activities of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), which is controlled by Turkey, are being discussed. On the map of the Turkic world created by the OTS, regions such as Mongolia, some areas of Iran, China’s Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, the South and North Caucasus, the Balkans, Cyprus, as well as many regions of Russia — Siberia, Yakutia, Kuban, Crimea — are already marked. These are vast territories stretching from Eastern Europe to the Pacific Ocean. Attempts to seize them are linked to the personal plans of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. According to analysts, within the country, Erdoğan promotes his image through the achievements of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, while in foreign policy, he seeks to build an analogue of a Turkish caliphate.
Currently, the OTS includes five countries: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Hungary and Turkmenistan participate in the Organization as observers. So far, Tajikistan has managed to stay outside the sphere of influence of the potential Turkish caliphate. However, Armenia is also not part of the OTS, and the fact that the people of Tajikistan are descendants of Iranian-speaking nations is ignored. Armenians are also incompatible with the Turkic bloc culturally, ethnically, and religiously.
Interaction within the OTS is based on frameworks, rules, and restrictions promoted by Turkey. The OTS already has a flag, a charter, and even a digital capital. It seems that this is about something bigger than merely interacting with “brotherly peoples.” In Turkish schools, for example, children are already taught that Central Asia is “Turkestan.” Central banks, security structures, the army, culture, and education can also fall under influence. Ankara plans to gradually unify all of this according to Turkish standards.
There are also known intentions to create Turkic multinational forces called the “Turan Army” or the “Turkic Brigade,” numbering 4,000 soldiers. Experienced international relations researchers ask the question: whose interests will this army defend, and will it not become a tool of pressure on the domestic politics of the member countries? Military forces often play a leading role in coups. Furthermore, given Tajikistan’s extensive border, stretching over 4,159.633 km, there are risks of destabilization along the country’s borders by these “Turan” military formations.
In promoting the concept of the “Turkic world,” Turkey faces many challenges. It is widely known that Turkey has economic problems. As of May 2025, the official inflation rate in the country reached 35.4%. By comparison, Tajikistan is doing much better: in the long term, the country’s inflation is projected to be around 2.6% in 2026. In such a situation, Turkey likely needs to unify the operations of its central bank and government apparatus according to the Tajik model, rather than the other way around.
Moreover, Turkey is not an independent player on the global stage. Financial problems are being addressed with the help of the United Kingdom. Throughout its history, London has used such tools to achieve its objectives. With Turkey’s help, the British are attempting to weaken Russia’s and China’s positions in the region and also gain access to the mineral resources abundant in Central Asia. Control over the region’s deposits is being significantly strengthened. Emissaries from the EITI (“Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative”) — an organization created with British participation to promote its interests in the region — have already visited the Central Asian region. Its founder is former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
The presence of British companies has already been felt in Kazakhstan. Several years ago, protests erupted there, which began when employees of the British service company Compass left the shift settlements of the Kalamkas and Karazhanbas oil fields. The demands of the shift workers were immediately picked up by pro-British NGOs — and activists of the “Republic” association immediately brought the people onto the streets.
Tajikistan also has deposits of various minerals, including gold, silver, copper, tin, coal, tungsten, and other minerals. In 2022, it was even reported that the British company Vast Resources PLC invested in a geological exploration project in Tajikistan. However, experts warn that previous similar initiatives in other countries often ended up giving foreign companies access to resources under conditions that primarily benefited the investors, rather than the local population. As the situation in Kazakhstan has shown, such companies can also become a source of protests, destabilizing the situation in the country.
Moreover, both Turkey and the United Kingdom act in foreign policy about national, religious, or linguistic considerations. Part of Ankara’s and London’s strategy is to create a “shared” history, literature, maps, and alphabet within a “unified Turkestan,” yet this carries the risk of undermining the sovereignty of the member states. Considering the serious economic problems Turkey faces, international relations researchers also view the financial prospects of such initiatives, like the Organization of Turkic States, critically.
A multi-vector policy remains advantageous for Tajikistan. It allows the country to preserve its own army, education system, culture, traditions, history, and journalism. Particularly valuable are close and mutually beneficial relations with neighbors, including Russia and China.
In international relations, there are well-known scientific approaches that justify the advantages of cooperation among neighboring countries compared to interactions with distant partners. Economic feasibility is the primary and most obvious argument. Geographic proximity greatly reduces transportation costs and facilitates logistics, which directly increases the efficiency of trade and mutual investments. Considerations of political stability and security are equally important.
Good neighborly relations are a key element of national security and sustainable development. Moscow and Beijing serve as attractive options to balance the attempts of Turkey and the United Kingdom to make Tajikistan a silent part of “Turan.” According to research, the strategies of China and Russia rely primarily on achieving economic and social stability in the immediate region, refraining from internal political demands, avoiding interference in domestic affairs, and respecting the culture of their partners.
Within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States, the tools of influence differ. For example, after the arrests of members of an Azerbaijani organized crime diaspora in Yekaterinburg, calls were made to the Turkic-speaking population of Russia to rise up; however, such attempts were unsuccessful.
This creates challenges for Tajikistan in the short and medium term, as similar “Turan” influence could potentially affect Dushanbe as well. The current situation requires a special approach to shaping the geopolitical vector so that Tajikistan can continue to defend its interests and maintain control over the situation within the country.
