What scenarios can be anticipated for a war between Iran and the United States?
By Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel has now entered its third week. As the conflict continues, global concerns are significantly growing about the potential expansion of the war across the entire Middle East and its consequences for the global economy. Many analysts believe that the continuation of this crisis could trigger serious shocks in energy markets, international trade, and the global financial system, posing new challenges to global economic stability.
At the geopolitical level, there are also signs of an emerging indirect confrontation between the Western bloc led by the United States and Eastern powers such as China and Russia. Although these countries are not officially directly involved in the war, within the context of global strategic competition, they may provide informational, technological, or political support to regional actors. Such a process could further complicate the security landscape and prolong the crisis.
Under these conditions, to better understand the future of this conflict, it is necessary to examine possible scenarios if it continues or expands. The first and most dangerous scenario is the escalation of the war into a large-scale regional conflict. In this case, regional actors and proxy forces would become more directly involved in the fighting. The United States and Israel have allies in the region who strongly oppose the growing geopolitical influence of Iran. In response, a network of pro-Iranian groups—including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran-aligned forces in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen—could actively enter the conflict. The full activation of these actors could turn the Middle East into a theater of a multi-front war, with consequences that would severely affect not only the region but also global security and energy markets.
The second scenario is the transformation of the conflict into a prolonged war of attrition. In such a situation, neither side achieves a quick victory, nor does the conflict end in a rapid agreement. The result could be the gradual depletion of the region’s economic, military, and political capacities. Trade and economic infrastructure would suffer, foreign investment would decline, and chronic instability would become part of the Middle East's structural reality. In this context, the United States and Israel may pursue a strategy of sustained but limited pressure—gradually weakening Iran’s military capabilities through airstrikes, cyber operations, and targeted actions without engaging in a full-scale ground war. At the same time, some analysts suggest that China and Russia may indirectly assist Iran—through informational or technological cooperation—to preserve the balance of power against the West and challenge the strategic presence of the United States in the region.
Alongside these scenarios, there is also the possibility of containing the crisis through a temporary agreement. Global economic pressure, disruptions in international trade routes, and rising war costs may push the parties toward a ceasefire or a limited agreement. Such an agreement would likely be achieved through mediation by regional powers or international actors. However, historical experience in the Middle East shows that such arrangements are often aimed more at crisis management than at establishing lasting peace. Therefore, even if an agreement is reached, the likelihood of renewed tensions in the future remains.
Another possible scenario is the continuation of the conflict as a limited, controlled confrontation. In this case, the war would proceed through airstrikes, missile defense operations, and limited military actions, while none of the parties would be willing or able to enter a full-scale war. This pattern has been observed many times in the Middle East, and therefore its likelihood is considered relatively high. Under such conditions, the region would enter a phase of managed instability that could persist for a long time.
At a deeper level, some analysts also consider the possibility of fundamental political changes in the region. In the event of a crisis escalation, existing security alliances could collapse, and changes in the power structures of some countries may occur. If such a process unfolds, the Middle East could enter a phase of geopolitical reconfiguration in which a new security order would emerge based on new alliances and different forms of competition. However, such a scenario is also associated with serious risks, including widespread internal instability, the strengthening of non-state armed groups, and intensified regional rivalries.
From an economic perspective, one of the most significant consequences of this conflict could be its impact on the global energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas supplies passes, is one of the most sensitive points of this crisis. Any disruption in this route could affect global energy supply and significantly increase oil prices. Under such circumstances, the global economy could face a new wave of inflation and recession—similar to what was experienced during the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Rising energy prices would directly impact production costs, transportation expenses, and food prices.
Overall, although the possibility of a full-scale regional war exists, historical experience suggests that scenarios involving limited conflict, war of attrition, or partial containment of tensions are more realistic, as the costs of a large-scale war would be extremely high for all parties. Nevertheless, even in the absence of a major war, ongoing tensions could alter the traditional balance of power in the Middle East and lead the region into a prolonged period of geopolitical competition and structural instability—a situation that will not be easy to manage for either regional or global actors.
