The Taliban is grappling with a deep crisis of mistrust within, making the possibility of military action to change leadership more likely.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
IN THE PHOTO: Mawlawi Abdulahad Talib and Sirajuddin Haqqani. Mawlawi Talib, then deputy governor of Helmand and commander of the Taliban's Red Squad, was arrested by Afghan government forces in 2020 and released from prison in 2021 following the Taliban-US agreement in Doha.
Recently, the Taliban regime has announced that the financial budget of an army of 40,000 armed men has been issued from the Ministry of Finance based on the order of the so called Haibatullah. Of course, this discussion was raised last year by the former security officials of Afghanistan, especially Rahmatullah Nabil, the former head of national security of the republican regime, and now with the leaked documents, many speculations have been created about it.
However, what defines the nature of the Taliban system is the silent, iron, powerful leadership, which is in conflict and a security puzzle with other Taliban groups, which causes the creation of such organizations. It goes without saying that this military organizational structure is the same as the structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Quds Force, which is under the direct command of the religious leadership of Iran's Welayat-e- Faqeh. By examining the issue, I have identified several reasons for the creation of this military organizational structure that will be under the direct command of the invisible leader of the Taliban.
First - For the invisible leader of the Taliban, who lives in a hidden state, no one knows about it, nor does he appear in the public as the leader of the Taliban, there is always a fear of a sudden rebellion by other Taliban groups, such as the Haqqanis, the Mullah Yaqub group, Qataris and the Helmand network. The leader of the Taliban is trying hard to stay safe from the attacks of other factions of the Taliban, using any means. The formation of such a military structure, which is equivalent to a military formation, shows how suspicious and distrustful he is of the operational and military structure of the Taliban group;
Second - Abdul Ahad Talib, who was in charge of the Taliban in Helmand Province for many years (even before the Taliban took control of Afghanistan). The province is known as the drug capital and financial treasure of the Taliban. For the leadership of the Taliban, like other violent ideological and religious dictatorships, the way to get money is drugs. Although, based on the available information, with the release of Haji Beshr, hope for the Taliban was renewed a while ago, so that the main executive of the drug trade will be handed over to an experienced person, but the evidence suggests that the leadership of the Taliban should be given to a trusted, skilled and experienced in this sector needs to lead drug trafficking with a well-equipped military power;
Third - Mullah Talib, who is one of the prominent commanders of the Taliban in southern Afghanistan, was close to the Kandahari faction of the Taliban since he joined this group. Now he has taken a step forward and by managing and controlling a special security unit with extraordinary powers, is trying to compete with other Taliban groups, such as the Haqqanis, who control the Ministry of Interior of Afghanistan, and Mullah Yaqoub, who is the care taker of the Ministry of Defense. Basically, this game is to balance the military strength of the Taliban group, which can explode at any moment;
Fourth - security officials and experts and people who know about the Taliban issue say that because Mullah Haibatullah neither was at war and nor he was a military commander in the past, with increasing tensions and creating an atmosphere of mistrust among Taliban leaders, he is trying to strengthen his military power and aims to create military balancing to protect himself position and due to this reason, he has appointed one of his trusted persons with special powers at the head of a military unit with vast facilities;
Fifth - Taliban fighters are present in the structure of the Ministry of Interior Ministry of Defense and Intelligence Department and based on the division of ministries among the key leaders of the Taliban, the ministries of interior and defense went to Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Yaqub respectively. Now this division has increased the tension among the Taliban leaders and Mullah Haibatullah is trying to increase his military power. Haibatullah is trying to use these forces in the event of any unexpected incident to defend his group interests in order to be ready to face any insurgent movements from the Taliban era. This step is considered as a measure to prevent a possible coup d'état within the Taliban, on the part of Mullah Haibatullah;
Sixth - The difference between the Pashtun branches within the Taliban leadership, such as the Ishaqzais, Noorzais, Ahmadzais and Achakzais, who are few in number among the Taliban, has made the invisible leader of the Taliban rely only on his tribe, which is Noorzai and have this special military unit with extraordinary facilities. This will create a parallel government alongside the Taliban regime itself.
By allocating the amount of 60 billion Afghanistan’s currency, Hibatullah is trying to in every way insure the command and leadership structure of Kandahar against any possible even weak security. The Taliban are struggling with a deep crisis of mistrust within, and this makes the possibility of any military action to change the leadership among the Taliban more likely.
