The TTP, the border skirmishes, and the twists and turns of the Taliban-Pakistan diplomatic engagement are all part of a multi-faceted game that protects Islamabad’s strategic objectives in Afghanistan.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitics Researcher, specially for Sangar
There is no doubt that Pakistan has been a smart, rational player with a long history of controlling proxy forces with which it has played bloody political and security games in the form of a proxy doctrine with strategic objectives and strategic depth. There is also no doubt that the Mujahideen, the Taliban, and even ISIS-Khorasan are creations of Pakistan and will remain obsessed with Pakistanophilia. That is, there is nothing in the intellectual vocabulary of these groups that is inimical to Pakistan’s interests that would cause a change in their overall outlook on Pakistan.
Let's look at the recent security and political issues, especially after the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, we will notice that unfortunately, our view in Afghanistan has always been reductionist and full of strategic miscalculations vis-à-vis Pakistan. Our emotions and feelings of anti-Pakistanism have always made us hostages of these crude ideas, and for this, we have suffered innumerable human, financial, and historical sacrifices. Now, Pakistan’s new moves to achieve its strategic goals, which is a combination of complex diplomatic measures, and continuing the intelligence and security game, must be analyzed in the form of an in-depth analysis in the light of the aggravated international, regional, and domestic situation in that country.
The visit of Sadiq Khan, Pakistan’s Special Representative to Afghanistan, which coincided with the bombing and shelling of the country in the Durand Line areas, shows that we should not be mistaken in analyzing the situation, especially Pakistan’s policy. We should not assume that the Taliban are in control of Afghanistan and that Islamabad has been removed and no longer plays a role in Afghanistan. Although the main aspect of the problem is that Pakistan remains an attractive player for rational and trans-regional powers, given its tense political and economic situation, security, as well as its strange ability to manage extremist forces that always revolve around its political and economic interests, make both the region and the trans-region to turn to it. The author intends to look at the recent events in this country in an unbiased and concrete way, which makes one not think that the Taliban has become a first-class enemy of this country.
FIRST. Understanding the conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan is not so simple. It requires evidence that can show that the Taliban has really come out of Pakistan's control and is acting independently. Likewise, the question of the absolute dependence of the Taliban on Pakistan in ideological, political, and even economic and military terms begs the question, is the Taliban a Pakistani product removed from its master, or is there another game going on under the cover of events?
SECOND. Why should the Taliban, whose political power is due to Pakistan's intelligent leadership, play against its interests and displease Islamabad? It is indeed interesting that most of the Taliban leaders are graduates of Pakistani madrassas and their families still live in that country. When this is the case, why should they act recklessly and spoil their relations with Islamabad? Although Islamabad's interests are the guarantee of the Taliban's continued political power, harming these interests would be suicidal for the Taliban.
THIRD. In the current situation, when a large part of society forms forces opposing the Taliban, any distancing of the Taliban from Islamabad's interests would mean opening new fronts against this group. Is it reasonable to believe that the Taliban can not resolve this issue?
FOURTH. Pakistan's "cat and mouse" game with the Taliban is most likely related to this reason: Islamabad wants to show that it is not alone in leading the Taliban and that this group in political power is causing it the most damage. Why did Islamabad start such a complex game and is ready to put all its eggs in one basket? In response, it should be said that by continuing this dangerous and bloody game, this country wants to show that the Taliban are not under its absolute control and Islamabad cannot be a guarantor of Taliban terrorist activities on a larger regional and global scale in the future. In addition, for the region to tolerate the Taliban, Islamabad has to divert attention from the Taliban by launching bloody security games. Islamabad thereby seeks to relieve itself of the burden of responsibility for the Taliban's terrorist acts and to take advantage of the regional potential to meet the financial and political needs of this group and to force the region to engage with the Taliban through its mediation to maintain this group in political power.
FIFTH. Now one must ask why Pakistan is so clever in this game when for almost half a century it has used all religious extremist forces as weapons and instruments to serve the interests of the great powers and has used them to its advantage. In response, it must be said that due to the logic that determines the security and political dynamics in the region, Pakistan has been able to secure the sympathy and financial, political, and military cooperation of the great powers and the region with it in this project. On the other hand, the Taliban has been able to use powerful and targeted tools to closely align itself with American goals in the direction of regional destabilization. This has forced the region and its neighbors to work through Pakistan with the Taliban to provide a balance and security problems imposed by the presence of international terrorism in Afghanistan. Therefore, Pakistan cannot and does not want to be far from the principle of the game and not be a partner in this project.
As a result, it can be said that in the first stage, Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban is a historic opportunity for Pakistan to realize the Durand problem, the depth of its strategy, and strategic goals and easily achieve them. Since Afghanistan is under the control of the Taliban, it does not have a legitimate government that could appeal to the international community to stop Pakistan's bloody games and hold it responsible for this. At the same time, the presence of the Taliban in power mustn't become sensitive for the region and trans-region. It is necessary that zigzag movements in the field of security, such as diplomatic and military steps, be launched simultaneously.
In addition, Pakistan cannot survive without Afghanistan. A wounded Afghanistan, immersed in political instability and economic weakness, dependent, and involved in the crisis of terrorism, is more in the interests of Islamabad than Afghanistan as a prosperous and peaceful country without political and economic problems. Besides, the existence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan is a hindrance to the growth and expansion of radical activities of Baloch separatists and other forces that can threaten the national security and territorial integrity of Pakistan. The game of terrorism and the justification of TTP itself has resulted in millions of dollars flowing into the empty coffers of Pakistan and helps this country to neutralize all threats emanating from India and the region under the slogan of suppressing potential enemies in the name of terrorism.
What is happening in Afghanistan is in the interests of Islamabad. This country is trying to fish in troubled waters to achieve vital interests and strategic depth in the region. This opportunity for Pakistan cannot be tested in any other country.
The only country that does not have a master is Afghanistan, which can effectively protect the interests of other competing countries. The Taliban are a product of Pakistan and will never stand up to it, the factory where they were produced. The skirmishes, border clashes, and the twists and turns of diplomatic interaction between the Taliban and Pakistan are a multi-faceted game that protects the strategic goals of that country in Afghanistan. Therefore, one should not be superficial in analyzing this game and consider the issue of the Taliban and Pakistan to be exhausted. The Taliban are a Pakistani product and will not confront Pakistan, a factory of its kind. The TTP, border clashes, and the twists and turns of diplomatic interaction between the Taliban and Pakistan are a multi-faceted game that protects Islamabad's strategic goals in Afghanistan. Therefore, one should not be superficial in analyzing this game and consider the issue of the Taliban and Pakistan to be exhausted.
