What does Prigozhin's "one-day uprising" mean for Russia's future?
Author: Fayaz Bahraman Najimi, analyst of regional and global issues, member of the Sangar Advisory Board.
- In recent months, especially since May, the verbal attacks by Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as the head of Wagner, against the Russian Defense Minister and the Army Chief of Staff had become louder and louder.
- After the end of Bakhmut Operation, Wagner's troops were actively withdrawn from the first front lines of the war.
- The military situation did not change much, and the losses of the Russians grew.
- The Ministry of Defense distorted the losses and the realities of the war.
- Prigozhin, as a man strongly nationalistic, patriotic, and devoted to Putin, took responsibility for raising the voice of protest.
- Although he was Putin's confidant, who even cooked food for him, and the private company "Wagner" was created with the consent of Putin, in recent years, especially since the war began, he criticized the Ministry of Defense and had no opportunity and ways to contact Putin to let him know the reality of the war.
- Most of the information provided to Putin is a fraud and does not correspond to the reality of the fronts.
- The lower-level military knows that top commanders, with the help of people from Putin's circle, and especially prominent oligarchs, are involved in major financial and economic deals with Ukraine and the West through Ukraine.
- In the end, the Kremlin does not have the will to fight, and the children of the people are dying.
- This situation caused strong discontent both at the front and among the people.
- Criticism of Prigozhin became the people's voice and increased his popularity.
- On the contrary, those around Putin frightened him with the danger coming from Prigozhin.
Result:
- I believe that Prigozhin, on the advice of others, followed the path of Hugo Chavez.
- Hugo Chavez launched a coup d'état in 1992. He failed and ended up in jail. Before going to prison, he told his people: His actions have not been successful so far.
He then sent a message from prison to his soldiers: I thank you for your loyalty, your bravery, and your resilience, and I, before the country and before all of you, take responsibility for this Bolivarian military movement.
- Prigozhin acted against the corrupt Russian regime on the model of Chavez.
- Prigozhin's act shocked Putin.
- The capture of the city of Rostov without resistance and the flight of the chief of staff of the army from the command post, and before that, the flight of the minister of defense from the battlefield are signs of the instability of Russian military leaders.
- Prigozhin actually became the “burning heart of Danko” in the famous story of Maxim Gorky, who sacrificed himself so that the Kremlin tsar, to whom he is very devoted, realized the plight.
- He, who could not convey his words to Putin directly, must have already opened Putin's eyes to the facts through Alexander Lukashenko.
- The completed deal shows that this is how it should have happened.
- Sergei Shoigu, who actually founded the United Russia Party before Putin, has now disappeared.
- The 50-year war between intelligence and the Russian Ministry of Defense is entering a new phase.
- It can be seen that after these events, Putin is shaking and starting a purge around him like in 1937, or he himself is drowning in the charm of those around him.
- If Smersh is not returned, Russia will collapse.
NOTE: On April 19, 1943, by a secret Decree of the Council of People's Commissars of the USSR, on the basis of the Directorate of Special Departments (UOO) of the NKVD of the USSR, three independent counterintelligence organizations were created, which were called Smersh "(short for "Death to spies!"). One of them was personally subordinate to Joseph Stalin (Wikipedia).
