Until the US orders a ceasefire, Israel will never cease-fire.
Author: Ahmad Saidi, an analyst on Afghanistan and regional issues (Germany), especially for Sangar
Recently, one of the important commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was killed by Israel at one of the bases in Syria.
This commander is the same person who had a close relationship with Qassem Soleimani and was one of his closest associates.
The killing of this IRGC official provoked a strong reaction from Mr. Raisi, the Iranian President, and the Iranian Foreign Minister also promised revenge against Israel.
But will this promise of revenge lead to a full-scale war in the region or not?
Although I believe that a full-scale war will not break out any time soon, Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran's allies will be more active in the region and will attack some of the US and Israeli resources.
Now Israel, with the full support of the US (which is concerned about the war spreading to the region) and Europe, has adopted a scorched earth policy against the Gaza Strip, based on the unprecedented war of the last 50 years ago. Gaza's infrastructure is subject to crazy bombing and destruction, and Palestinian attacks continue unabated. In addition, the Netanyahu government announced cutting off water, electricity, food, and medicine to the population of the region and created various obstacles for Hamas to launch attacks.
This unprecedented intensity of hysterical bombing of the Gaza Strip has several goals:
- Increasing the costs of Hamas attacks and removing this territory from the conflict zone for the next few decades, which I do not consider possible.
- Sending a message to other fronts that would face the same fate if Israel were attacked, such as Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian supporters.
- Unexpected increase in the number of Palestinian victims. Therefore, in wars and conflicts, Israel's death toll has always been much lower than that of the warring parties. But now the situation has changed, and Netanyahu will probably not be satisfied until he restores this equation and increases the number of Palestinian victims to 20,000 or at least more.
- Forcing Hamas to release prisoners without receiving compensation, which is a big problem for Netanyahu.
It should be noted that Israel pursued similar goals in previous wars against Gaza, but these goals were not achieved.
On the other hand, Palestinian attacks, whether rocket or ground, despite the unprecedented volume of Israeli attacks, continue, but with fewer results.
In short, developments at the moment indicate that there is a decision to go to war in the region if events on the battlefield do not dictate it, but if the war does not extend beyond the Gaza Strip, which is expected, it will have important implications at various levels within the region for the controlled escalation of tensions in the future.
Most countries are trying to get Israel to cease fire, but I believe it is better to have America stop it because only an American cease-fire can bring Israel to the negotiating table. And there will be a ceasefire. Until the US orders a ceasefire, Israel will never cease-fire.
