Armenia Is Not Yet Ready to Leave the Eurasian Economic Union
By Ali Askari, analyst (Germany), especially for Sangar
On September 1, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Yerevan's aspiration to join the European Union was its legitimate right, but that such a move would create difficulties for Armenia's continued participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). He once again called for a referendum on the issue and pledged to respect its outcome, whatever it might be. The Russian president described the adoption of legislation initiating accession to another economic bloc as effectively a "declaration of withdrawal" from the EAEU.
It should be recalled that Armenia's parliament adopted the law initiating the country's EU accession process on March 26, 2025, and President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed it on April 4.
Alexei Shevtsov, Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council, stated: "Joining the EU will cost Armenia approximately 23% of its GDP, even by the most modest and conservative estimates, while a substantial contraction of the labor market by 10.5 percentage points and an increase in inflation by 22.6 percentage points will lead to a significant decline in living standards in the country."
According to Shevtsov, if Armenia joins the EU, domestic consumption in the republic will fall by more than 20%. At the same time, energy prices, including those for natural gas, will rise.
"Armenian goods will face quotas in the EU market and the need to comply with European technical regulations, which, in turn, will require additional investment," the Deputy Secretary of the Security Council noted.
Furthermore, Shevtsov warned that Armenia's accession to the EU and the potential introduction of a visa regime with Russia and Iran would significantly reduce tourist arrivals, dealing a severe blow to the country's economy. He recalled that tourism accounts for approximately 13.5% of the republic's GDP.
In October 2026, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan prepared a report entitled "On the Possible Consequences of Suspending the Application to the Republic of Armenia of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014." The report is scheduled to be presented at the December meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.
The document examines Yerevan's steps toward EU membership, the compatibility of its obligations within the two organizations, and the legal mechanisms for preventing the associated risks.
According to the report's authors, suspending Armenia's participation in the EAEU could have the following consequences:
- A 15.6% decline in Armenia's GDP, equivalent to approximately $4.6 billion. In addition, inflation is projected to rise by 14.9 percentage points above the baseline level, while consumption could fall by 14.6%.
- A decline of more than 55% in trade turnover with EAEU member states. Armenian exports to the bloc could fall by more than 65%, while imports could be reduced by almost half.
- The reinstatement of customs declarations and inspections, as well as duties, prohibitions, and restrictions applicable to trade with countries outside the union.
- The termination of recognition of Armenian product conformity assessment documents.
- Tighter conditions for labor migration.
- The loss of trade and financial advantages, including national treatment in public procurement, the distribution of import customs duties, and preferential access to EAEU partners' markets under free trade agreements.
On October 28, 2026, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated during a briefing that Nikol Pashinyan's reaction to the EAEU report on the consequences of suspending Armenia's membership in the bloc was aggressive and unfounded. According to her, such rhetoric diverts public attention from domestic problems and shifts responsibility onto external forces. The diplomat argued that this criticism ignores the economic consequences of Armenia's policy of rapprochement with the European Union, as well as the potential damage to the country's traditional ties with Russia.
Despite the above, on November 5, 2026, Nikol Pashinyan stated that Yerevan could not avoid withdrawing from the EAEU on its path toward EU membership.
"We have begun preparations to create an alternative, as we promised the people, so that they have the opportunity to choose. We do not intend to leave the EAEU, but our colleagues within the union are raising the issue of deciding on and holding a referendum."
He also added that simultaneous membership in the EU and the EAEU would not be feasible, either legally or economically. The prime minister noted that Armenia was not yet ready to withdraw from the EAEU, as a referendum must first be held. Nevertheless, the country is already "moving in that direction."
The short-sightedness of the current Armenian leadership's political course could lead to a deterioration in the living standards of ordinary citizens in the near future. Pashinyan would then have to bear personal responsibility before the Armenian people for a decision that undermines the republic's economy and threatens its national security.
