What is Pakistan's new intelligence game in Afghanistan?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially to Sangar
After the Taliban were returned to power in Afghanistan, the general perception was that Pakistan has now reached its strategic depth more easily. Many even called Pakistan the undisputed owner of Afghanistan after America. But the deterioration of the situation, the unprecedented mobility of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its allied groups, the high volume of attacks by Baluch fighters and the economic pressure, the political crisis caused by the removal of Imran Khan, and the boycott of his party, severe monetary inflation and the value decline of the Pakistani currency against foreign currency, the high and unsustainable amount of foreign debts, the disobedience of the Afghan Taliban to listen to Pakistan about putting more pressure on the TTP, and the weakening of Pakistan's role in Afghanistan's post-US game have made this country forced to redefine his views on Afghanistan. This is why Pakistan's intelligence agency, which is the mastermind of its policies, is trying new tricks to keep its strategic interests in Afghanistan.
In any way, Pakistan wants to get rid of its concerns about Afghanistan's understanding that it may fall into the hands of India, Iran, Russia and China at any moment. In this way, some time ago there were rumors about the formation of a new axis from the remnants of the ex-republic in Pakistan. Now Pakistan says that it will not return the former intelligence officers of Afghanistan. Apparently, it has been said that Pakistan will not deport former Afghan intelligence officers because of the dangers they face in their own country. Pakistan, which was a big supporter of the Taliban, was the manager of operational and war plans against the security forces of the Republic in Afghanistan, and through intelligence advice and political lobbying, convinced the US to hand over Afghanistan to the Taliban, now has decided to use this card, organize a new game in the pivot around Afghanistan. With this new trick, Pakistan wants to maintain its security, economic and political interests and remain in the pivot and even eliminate any weak possibility of political and security instability. While the interim government of Pakistan has started deporting one million and seven hundred thousand "illegal" Afghanistan’s immigrants from all over Pakistan and has not paid attention to international objections in this regard, Pakistan’s recent step to deport all immigrants raises analyzes and estimates in this matter. Let's talk about it numerically:
First, applying high pressure on the Taliban to avoid getting out of the game circuit organized by Pakistan. In case the Taliban make such a mistake, Pakistan already wants to have the second option to apply more pressure with the same tactics of supporting the Taliban. The intelligence forces of Afghanistan, who took refuge in Pakistan after the fall of the republican government, have rich experience in operational and intelligence work and are tested, and with an anti-Taliban spirit, they are always ready to face the Taliban. This is a tactic to prevent any kind of Taliban rebellion that may endanger Pakistan's security, political and economic resources in the future;
Second - Pakistan knows very well that part of the military cadres of the republican system is kept by Iran, US and England, and they are going to use these in the future of the game; especially the soldiers who are from eastern and southern provinces and Kandahar region, linguistically, they are linked to one of Pakistan language( Pashto) and are currently breathing under the control of ISI. These can become a winning card for Pakistan in the future of the game around Afghanistan. In addition, the evacuation of information from Afghan intelligence officers who have taken refuge in Pakistan has not yet been completed, and Pakistan is aware of this issue and has it on the agenda. For this purpose, Tajmir Jawad, the Deputy Director of the Taliban Intelligence Department, recently went to Islamabad to get familiar with the characteristics of the new ISI program and perform activities in Kabul accordingly;
Third - Since the announcement of the expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, the international community, organizations supporting refugees and organizations related to the United Nations, which work and are active in the field of defending the rights of refugees, have made repeated requests Pakistan to not to deport those Afghans who are under direct security threat from the Taliban. By using this new trick, Pakistan is trying to score points from the international community. With the exception of not deporting Afghan intelligence officers, it is considered a kind of scoring for Pakistan to use them in the future, as it has been warned before, and to benefit from the financial assistance of international organizations to heal the economic wounds;
Fourth - Pakistan's fear and concern after the removal of Imran Khan from power by a white coup that was organized with the help of the army, is that the claim of "Lar and Bar" practically used for Pashtuns in both sides of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan may lead to political instability inside Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan has announced that it has so far arrested 15 Afghan nationals, who were mostly residents of Kandahar, and had participated in security-disrupting programs against Pakistan inside its soil. By using the intelligence card of experienced intelligence officers who have been doing their duty with the spirit of fighting against the Taliban for years, they can help Pakistan in times of crisis against any kind of action by the Pashtuns;
Fifth - With this trick, Pakistan started another program that says "we will not expel Afghanistan’s intelligence officers" and thus, with this excuse, those who introduce their identity and tell about their work history, while they were hidden until now, was also disclosed and subsequently, the ISI surveillance ring on them was completed and they are under the complete control of ISI, because ISI considers former military personnel to be related to the Indian Intelligence Organization (RAW), so they are still a type of the mentality of fear and sense of danger from them regarding the possible movements inside Pakistan's territory, referring to India, is palpable in the eyes of Pakistan.
Overall, it can be said that Pakistan's new trick of not deporting some people under the name of intelligence cadres revolves around Pakistan's security, economic and political interests, and it can be considered a pre-organized program.
