Under What Circumstances Is Ukraine Approaching the End of the Road?
Author: Aziz Arianfar, former Ambassador of Afghanistan to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies in Germany (Frankfurt, Germany)
For many years, I have repeatedly said that both the West and the government that came to power as a result of the Maidan coup made a very serious mistake by dragging themselves into a pointless war of attrition with Russia. It would have been far better not to embark on such an adventure: on the one hand, Ukraine could have preserved its neutrality and refrained from raising foolish and hollow slogans about joining NATO; on the other, it could have been transformed internally into a confederation.
But even leaving all of that aside, they should at least not have reneged on their commitments under the Minsk agreements and, ultimately, should not have fallen for the machinations of that cunning demon, Boris Johnson. At the very least, they should have accepted and honored the Istanbul agreements.
Only under those circumstances could Ukraine have continued its political existence as an independent country with its territorial integrity fully intact.
However, the clownish regime burned all the bridges behind it. Over the years of war, the country’s economy has been completely destroyed, twenty million people have slipped beyond Kyiv’s control, and two million have been killed or wounded. The country has accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars in debt.
Now Ukraine’s entire infrastructure has been devastated: railway stations, power plants, bridges, airports, and other facilities have become targets of relentless strikes. In short, a deadly winter lies ahead, along with the danger that millions of refugees will pour into Europe.
Ukraine’s treasury has been drained, and to continue this endless war, it needs another thirty billion dollars in budget funding this year.
The question is: is Europe prepared to continue this “fool-money giveaway”? And if it refuses to provide the money, then what?
This war brings no benefit whatsoever either to Europe or to the long-suffering people of Ukraine. Not to mention that China, taking advantage of Europe’s adventurist war against Russia, is gradually capturing the markets of Central Asia and Russia.
We have repeatedly predicted that, in the end, Ukraine will no longer survive as a state in its present form.
It remains to be seen whether Russia will content itself with reaching the borders of Novorossiya/the red zone and cut off Ukraine’s access to the open seas by taking the strategic port of Odesa, or whether it will continue the war until it takes Malorossiya/the aubergine-colored zone.
Much depends on the agreements between the United States and Russia in connection with the November elections. Trump needs achievements in the realm of foreign policy.
Perhaps he will use Zelensky as a bargaining chip to pave the way for peace negotiations. Or perhaps the question of his physical elimination and bringing Ukraine’s bloody comedy to an end is already on the agenda of the White House—or perhaps the Kremlin?
In any case, Ukraine is approaching the end of the road.
We hope that this bloody and devastating war, which claims the lives of thousands of people every day, will come to an end as soon as possible.
Ending the war now depends on whether short-sighted European politicians will come to their senses and, after assessing the situation realistically and rationally, begin searching as quickly as possible for diplomatic ways to bring the war to an end.
Adding fuel to the fire of war is in no way in Europe’s interests. On the contrary, it is enormously beneficial to China.
In any undertaking, the final outcome is what matters:
The outcome of the Ukraine war is the collapse, devastation, and destruction of a once prosperous, developed, flourishing, and large country; two million people killed and wounded; an irreparable loss of twenty million people from its population; and widespread destruction.
And one final point:
If the West does not come to its senses, Russia will soon destroy all the infrastructure, assets, and investments that Western countries have put into Ukraine in recent years, thereby inflicting tens of billions of dollars in losses.
