Note: Afghanistan has returned to the late 20th and early 21st century and has become a safe haven for terrorist organizations. But when will another 11/09 happen?
Author: Andrey Serenko, Director of the Analytical Center of the Russian Society of Political Scientists
They are already on their way to you.
The Afghan branch of ISIS is preparing to organize terrorist attacks outside the region. This is evidenced by the arrest by the Turkish special services of two militants of the Afghan branch of ISIS (“Vilayat Khorasan”), who were planning terrorist attacks in Istanbul on December 31, 2022.
This pre-New Year's arrest confirms that the Afghan branch of ISIS plans to expand its expansion not only beyond the borders of Afghanistan but also outside the region.
In 2022, “Vilayat Khorasan” militants carried out several successful terrorist attacks in Kabul, in fact, convincingly proving that the Taliban is no longer in control of the security situation in the country's capital.
Four shelling from rocket launchers of the border territories of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in 2022, recorded the ability of the “Vilayat Khorasan” militants to organize cross-border attacks on the neighboring countries of Afghanistan.
Finally, preparations for a terrorist attack in Turkey marked a new direction in the terrorist activity of the Afghan branch of ISIS. "Vilayat Khorasan" is clearly seeking to go beyond the borders of the near-Afghan region and intends to attack targets thousands of kilometers from Kabul.
It can be assumed that Turkish cities are only advertising and training platforms and transit points on the path of the new expansion of the “Vilayat Khorasan”. The Afghan branch of ISIS is clearly aiming to become the "front line of terrorist production" in the community of branches (vilayats) of the "Islamic State". And for this, the "Afghans" will need to demonstrate the ability to carry out attacks not just outside of Afghanistan, but in symbolically important countries - in the EU (France, Italy, Germany, etc.), Great Britain, Russia, ideally - the USA and Israel (quite fit Israeli and American diplomatic institutions in European or post-Soviet countries). Apparently, the special services of these states should prepare to receive "guests" from the “Vilayat Khorasan” as early as 2023.
Judging by the Turkish episode, the perpetrators of terrorist attacks on behalf of the Afghan branch of ISIS maybe people from the republics of Central Asia (and not necessarily from Afghanistan), including those already living on the territory of the attacked states (so one strengthening of border and passport and visa control at airports is not enough).
Many factors will influence the expansion dynamics of the “Vilayat Khorasan” to the far-off Afghan countries. One is internal competition among Islamic State affiliates. Apparently, there is no clear delimitation of spheres of influence within the "communal apartment" of ISIS - its various "residents" allow themselves to fall on the "square meters" of their neighbors.
This is also evidenced by the Turkish incident on December 31: the attack on the household of President Erdogan was prepared not by the Syrian or Iraqi "wilayats" of ISIS, but by the Afghan branch of the terrorist group. This is a kind of infrastructure and logistics surprise. So far, it has failed due to the professionalism and luck of the Turkish special services.
But it seems that new surprises from the Afghan ISIS are just around the corner.
