What Changes Will October 27 Bring to Israel?
By Bakhtiyor Hamdamov, Analyst (Tajikistan)
On October 27, Israelis will elect the 26th Knesset. These will be the first elections since October 7, 2023, and two years of war in Gaza — a war that, according to various estimates, has claimed more than 80,000 lives. Will these elections change anything in the region? Will this process bring lasting peace any closer for the long-suffering people of Palestine?
THE POLITICAL BALANCE OF POWER
A total of 38 parties have submitted applications to participate in the elections. However, according to projections, only 11 to 12 are expected to cross the electoral threshold of 3.25%. The main players on the political stage are:
- Yashar! (Gadi Eisenkot);
- Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu);
- Beyahad ("Together") — an alliance of Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid (Naftali Bennett);
- Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel Our Home") (Avigdor Lieberman);
- Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin);
- Shas (Aryeh Deri);
- United Arab List (Mansour Abbas).
To form a governing coalition, a party or alliance must secure 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats. According to aggregated opinion polls, Yashar is projected to win approximately 22–23 seats, Netanyahu's party around 18, and the Arab parties approximately 13.
None of the political blocs commands a majority, and there is no clear frontrunner in the electoral race.
WHO WILL BECOME PRIME MINISTER?
Three candidates are competing for the position. According to opinion polls, Gadi Eisenkot receives 52% support, Benjamin Netanyahu 28%, and Naftali Bennett 16%.
Netanyahu enters the election campaign while facing an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC). The court has accused him of war crimes and crimes against humanity, including the use of starvation as a method of warfare, murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts. At the same time, Netanyahu faces corruption charges, with his trial continuing in Tel Aviv.
Analysts identify three possible scenarios:
1 - The formation of a coalition led by Eisenkot, with the participation of Arab parties holding 13–14 seats.
2 - The establishment of a national unity government with a rotating prime ministership.
3 - The holding of another round of elections.
According to opinion polls, 55% of Israelis support the formation of a national unity government, while viewing another election as the least desirable option.
WHAT DO THE THREE LEADERS PROMISE, AND WHAT DO THE PEOPLE THINK?
Gadi Eisenkot stated in an interview with the newspaper Israel Hayom: “Anyone who thinks about a two-state solution after the events of October 7 (the Hamas attack on southern Israel during the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah) is, in fact, indulging in fantasies.” He opposes both the establishment of a Palestinian state and the annexation of territories, yet offers no viable alternative.
Benjamin Netanyahu declares: “There will be no Palestinian state.” Netanyahu describes such a state as “a base for the destruction of Israel” and demands full security control over the territories west of the Jordan River.
Naftali Bennett is a staunch opponent of Palestinian statehood and has advocated for years the annexation of Area C of the West Bank, which accounts for approximately 60% of the territory. On this issue, his position is even further to the right than Netanyahu's.
Only the united Arab parties and Yair Golan's Democrats support the two-state solution. Even if they manage to cross the electoral threshold, they are unlikely to exert any significant influence on government policy — a policy that, in essence, reflects an inhumane attitude toward Palestinians.
In principle, no party or politician whose views contradict the prevailing sentiments of society can win an election. Israel is no exception. The leaders of the three most influential electoral lists speak about Palestine in “different languages,” yet they agree with their electorates on one fundamental point: a Palestinian state will not be established.
Therefore, the root cause of the situation should not be sought in political maneuvering or the positions of influential foreign powers. Today, by voting for pro-war parties, the Israeli people have, on the whole, chosen the continuation of war and genocide in Palestine rather than peace — the only path toward security and stability in the region.
