The strategy of IS* militants in Central Asia as a creation of geopolitical instability in the region
Source: Telegram - channel "Rybar", Russia
In recent months, the militants of the Afghan branch of the IS "Vilayat Khorasan" have increased their activity. They are attacking Taliban* positions more and more boldly, and their information service is recruiting and propaganda in different languages. Over the past month, IS has increased its presence from 6 to 11 provinces in Afghanistan.
On the territory of the country, ISIS extremists have concentrated their attention on the north of Afghanistan. And this was not done by chance: the existing contradictions and the armed conflict of the Taliban with the resistance and other ethnic minorities are fertile ground for spreading their ideology and attracting new people.
And the favorable territorial position of Afghanistan in the future may allow IS militants to operate not only in Iran, Pakistan or India but also in the post-Soviet countries with the long-term goal of destabilizing the situation in Russia.
🔻 What is the IS leadership plan?
Ill-conceived domestic policy, economic pressure, a humanitarian crisis, and the oppression of ethnic minorities by the Taliban only played into the hands of ISIS in strengthening its position. The leadership of “Vilayat Khorasan” is now acting according to a proven strategy, gradually expanding the area of its presence, especially in the blazing north of the country.
The Central Asian republics are establishing de facto relations with the Taliban out of concern for the security of their southern borders. IS is trying to disrupt any kind of interaction between the states of the post-Soviet space and the Taliban, both in the political and economic spheres.
Increasingly, there are rocket attacks on the territories of neighboring countries, which demonstrate the ability of "Vilayat Khorasan" to operate outside of Afghanistan.
Thus, since spring, IS militants have fired at the Uzbek Termez of "handicraft" MLRS three times, and in May dealt a similar blow to Tajikistan. The Uzbek leadership immediately denied the fact of strikes from Uzbekistan, but the existing photo and video materials indicate otherwise.
Vilayat Khorasan terrorists are already confidently present in the provinces of Balkh, Kunduz, and Takhar, demonstrating the Taliban's weakness in its ability to provide security in the country. The events also show the impossibility of fulfilling the obligations of the Taliban to combat the spread of terrorism against their neighbors.
🔻 How does "Vilayat Khorasan" attract people?
IS infoboxes are actively promoting their activities in the Central Asian region. The main method of conducting an information war is Telegram channels affiliated with a banned group. They publish detailed reviews of all events in Pashto, Dari, Arabic, Tajik, Uzbek, Russian, and, more recently, also in Hindi.
Against the backdrop of interethnic conflict, special emphasis is placed on attracting the ethnic minorities of Afghanistan - Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, and Turkmens, as well as members of other radical formations into their ranks.
Another concomitant factor in the deterioration of the situation is a severe crisis and the lack of a competent policy from the Taliban leadership, which is used by IS militants. They discredit the actions of the Taliban, calling them incompetent henchmen of the West.
🔻 Goals of Vilayat Khorasan
ISIS is not interested in a stable Afghanistan, pursuing one goal: the creation of an Islamic caliphate by creating chaos and destruction.
The deteriorating domestic political situation is in the interests of "Vilayat Khorasan". All their efforts in the short term will be aimed at disrupting all projects or agreements concluded by the Taliban with other countries in order to exclude the possibility of recognition of the "Islamic Emirate". Along the way, the recruitment of people will continue, including from the CIS countries (events in Karakalpakstan or Tajikistan, with the long-term goal of infiltrating other countries in the region.
*The organization is under UN sanctions or banned due to terrorist activities.
