Neighbors, the region and the world are tactically and operationally using the name of the imaginary Haibatullahh.
Author: Abdunaser Nurzad, researcher in the field of security and geopolitics.
The last photo of Haibatullah (right), which appeared in the media in the last month
Why the Haibatullah-host, the leader of the Taliban, does not appear in the media is an important question for many people, and in many cases a discussion worth thinking about, since usually not everyone knows and should not know the intelligence people. The imaginary Haibatullah rules over thirty million people, but no one has seen him. I wonder how, in the 21st century and at the height of information and technological powers, such an intelligence ploy left an entire nation in the dark? I must say that with a high probability the imaginary Haibatullah does not exist. It is true that a man named Haibatullah existed in the past and was present among the Taliban, but on the basis of two different and essentially the same theories, both of which confirm his non-existence, he does not exist.
The first version says that he was killed in 2019 in a bombing in Quetta, Pakistan, along with his brother, Mawlawi Matiullah, a Taliban intelligence officer, and Hafiz Majid, a Taliban financial director. The second version says that he died due to coronavirus in a hospital in Pakistan. The Taliban reject both cases and insist that he is alive. The truth in this matter is not well known. Be that as it may, a name like Haibatullah issues orders, rules the country, and no one has the courage to disobey him. An imaginary and scandalous face that cannot remain out of the headlines for a moment, still dominates the minds and the field of action.
Reasons for the non-existence of the so-called imaginary Haibatulla
- The ignorance of the Taliban was evident from the moment they appeared. It is surprising that a leader without a face rules only with his voice and by analogy, and all the Taliban obey this voice unquestioningly. This means that this project is planned in such a way that it can be implemented without any hitches. So, who is behind the scenes, causes many doubts and ambiguities in each of us;
- The Taliban group has declared many religious values, moral and social norms practically unacceptable. How can they unconditionally submit to a metaphorical creature that no one has seen or met? In this case, the only thing that can be seen from him are his voicemails, and the only thing that can prove a weak claim to the existence of Haibatullah is news about his alleged and serial meetings with Taliban leaders and political and intelligence circles.
- Many may ask why other members of the Taliban enthusiastically entered Kabul when the city was handed over to this group, and the imaginary Haibatullah has not yet arrived in the capital? It is known that not everything is clear here. In this sense, in order not to reveal the original identity of this intelligence code, no one has seen it, and it is not easy to access it;
- Why, on rare occasions, even internal elements and the Taliban do not publish news about Haibatullah's meetings? Only in some meetings, foreigners, such as the Prime Minister of Qatar, representatives of the CIA and other influential intelligence organizations on the issue of Afghanistan and the leaders of the Taliban group, advertise that they met and had a meeting with the imaginary Haibatullah.
Features of this reconnaissance element
- The imaginary Haibatullah is trying in every possible way to create a centralized administration, the control center of which should be located only in Kandahar and under his direct command. This separates him from other Taliban leaders and shows that there is an individual behind the scenes who is more of an intelligence and military element than a political and religious entity and knows how to control a militant and extremist group under one command.
- The imaginary Haybatullah is trying to strengthen the position of the clerical class, which is the main element of mobilization and unification of religious extremist groups, in the Taliban system. Because with this work, the stability of his own power bases is guaranteed, and the clerics and mullahs, who have a profound influence on the activities of the Taliban, can be used as a tool to achieve its goals and the intelligence organization associated with it;
- Contrary to what a religious leader should do, he always purges the ranks of the Taliban, especially the military and security departments of the group, in order to carry out religious activities and provide religious justifications for the activities of the Taliban group. This activities shows the extent to which the imaginary Haybatullah, who appeared in this role with a mysterious religious face, but with an intelligence nature, is worried about his safety and the possibility of a coup d'état against him.
Why is there an emphasis on the fact that the imaginary Haibatullah is an intelligence element?
- From the very beginning of his appointment as emirulmuminin of the Taliban, in addition to the religious leadership of this group, Haibatullah interfered more in political, military, intelligence and security affairs. This shows that the imaginary Haibatullah is an intelligence element that knows how to consolidate political power by intervening in military and security affairs;
- How is it possible that the leadership of a militant group, accustomed to killings and wars from the very beginning, was taken over by a civilian and a mullah? The man named Haibatullah appears to have been a civilian and, according to reliable information, he was mainly involved in issuing fatwas and teaching religious matters. And the current imaginary Haibatullah is a military man and intelligence officer, and the group should be led by a person who has seen the war and has the necessary military and political experience. But how this group accepted a civil and religious person as ruler, despite its militant and terrorist character, is doubtful;
- Another reason indicating that a man named Haibatullah is an intelligence code is that he has been hiding until now, and no one has seen him. Intelligence elements usually live secretly and lead mysterious lives. How do we know that tomorrow a man named Haibatullah - an imaginary code - will die and his death will due to illness?
- The presentation of conflicting information about Haibatullah left many doubts and ambiguities. Anyone who sees this conflicting information will doubt whether it is Haibatullah or not. This question raises doubts among both the audience and analysts about the existence of Haibatullah, the name of the Taliban leader, who most likely does not exist physically;
A man named Haibatullah, who is fictional, differs from other mullahs of Afghanistan in behavior, speech and thinking. He doesn't even look like other Taliban leaders. The way he speaks, gives orders and tries to place figures in the Taliban regime, especially in the security and military sectors, shows that he is a completely separate and distinct element.
Why are neighbors and others silent about Haibatullah?
- Neighbors, the region and the world are tactically and operationally using the name of the imaginary Haibatullahh. A game with a name that does not physically exist is for the benefit of everyone. Because with the discovery that this person does not exist physically, Afghanistan, which has become a hot center of terror and terrorist activities, and more than twenty terrorist groups have a military and physical presence there, with the realization that the imaginary Haibatullah does not exist, can disperse and not provide opportunities to act according to a predetermined plan to disrupt the security of the region. On the other hand, the revelation of the non-existence of the imaginary Haibatullah exposes the Taliban to a leadership crisis, and for a group that is deeply divided and likely to split within it at any moment, faces a crisis of legitimacy among the Taliban's regular ranks.
- Contrary to what a religious leader should do, he always purges the ranks of the Taliban, especially the military and security departments of the group, in order to carry out religious activities and provide religious justifications for the activities of the Taliban group. This activities shows the extent to which the imaginary Haybatullah, who appeared in this role with a mysterious religious face, but with an intelligence nature, is worried about his safety and the possibility of a coup d'état against him.
Why is there an emphasis on the fact that the imaginary Haibatullah is an intelligence element?
- From the very beginning of his appointment as emirulmuminin of the Taliban, in addition to the religious leadership of this group, Haibatullah interfered more in political, military, intelligence and security affairs. This shows that the imaginary Haibatullah is an intelligence element that knows how to consolidate political power by intervening in military and security affairs;
- How is it possible that the leadership of a militant group, accustomed to killings and wars from the very beginning, was taken over by a civilian and a mullah? The man named Haybatullah appears to have been a civilian and, according to reliable information, he was mainly involved in issuing fatwas and teaching religious matters. And the current imaginary Haibatullah is a military man and intelligence officer, and the group should be led by a person who has seen the war and has the necessary military and political experience. But how this group accepted a civil and religious person as ruler, despite its militant and terrorist character, is doubtful;
- Another reason indicating that a man named Haibatullah is an intelligence code is that he has been hiding until now, and no one has seen him. Intelligence elements usually live secretly and lead mysterious lives. How do we know that tomorrow a man named Haibatullah - an imaginary code - will die and his death will due to illness?
- The presentation of conflicting information about Haibatullahh left many doubts and ambiguities. Anyone who sees this conflicting information will doubt whether it is Haibatullah or not. This question raises doubts among both the audience and analysts about the existence of Haibatullah, the name of the Taliban leader, who most likely does not exist physically;
A man named Haibatullah, who is fictional, differs from other mullahs of Afghanistan in behavior, speech and thinking. He doesn't even look like other Taliban leaders. The way he speaks, gives orders and tries to place figures in the Taliban regime, especially in the security and military sectors, shows that he is a completely separate and distinct element.
Why are neighbors and others silent about Haibatullah?
- Neighbors, the region and the world are tactically and operationally using the name of the imaginary Haibatullahh. A game with a name that does not physically exist is for the benefit of everyone. Because with the discovery that this person does not exist physically, Afghanistan, which has become a hot center of terror and terrorist activities, and more than twenty terrorist groups have a military and physical presence there, with the realization that the imaginary Haibatullah does not exist, can disperse and not provide opportunities to act according to a predetermined plan to disrupt the security of the region. On the other hand, exposing the non-existence of the imaginary Haibatullah exposes the Taliban to a crisis of leadership and, for a group that is deeply divided and could splinter from within at any moment, faces a crisis of legitimacy among the Taliban regular forces.
The possibility of a coup among the Taliban against the imaginary Haibatullah
Elements that can lead to serious problems and divisions among the Taliban are as follows:
- Limitation of resources for the majority of Taliban members who fought against the republican system and foreigners for twenty years and wish to take advantage of the opportunities and resources of state power. This resources and its monopoly are at the disposal of a few limited circles. This may cause the majority of the Taliban to protest and revolt against the rule of the imaginary Haibatullah;
- External pressure to break the Taliban, especially from neighbors, is causing Haibatullah's sovereignty to suffer from multiple factions, and the clean face of his unquestioning leadership is being seriously questioned.
- Breaking the balance of power within the Taliban forces, such as the Haqqani network, the Mullah Yaqub network, the Qatari group and the Kandahar group, will lead to the dominance of one part over the others. This division and dispersal can lead to the fact that the seemingly unified center of the Taliban will crumble into several centers;
- Constant internal rivalry between the previously mentioned groups will increase the likelihood of coups and internal rebellions in order to gain more power and wealth, as well as more financial and political privileges against the rule of the imaginary Haibatullah. Currently, the Haibatullah group, the Haqqani network, the Mullah Yaqub group and the Qatar group are several hostile groups with the potential to change the current Taliban regime. By changing the balance and creating more gaps, each of them could upset the balance of Taliban unity.
Existing divisions among the Taliban
The security gap and increased fronts of resistance to the Taliban in politics and warfare, cyberspace pressure and organized psychological warfare against this group, lack of legitimacy that puts double pressure on the group, a gap in capabilities that will take away the ability to govern over time is one of the most important factors and gaps faced by the group's regime. Based on this, it is clear that this group has not passed the fragile stage and at any moment there is a possibility of an internal explosion.
